Speaker
Description
Climate change is poised to exert a notable impact on global and regional water resource systems. Over the last three decades, the High Atlas Mountains in Morocco have faced severe droughts, resulting in a diminished water supply that adversely affects both agricultural activities and urban water systems. This study aims to evaluate the repercussions of climate change and socio-economic factors on water supply and demand within the Ourika watershed (located in the High Atlas of Morocco). Additionally, we assess the effectiveness and sustainability of regional adaptation strategies for water supply management. To achieve this, we utilize the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and the water assessment and planning tool (WEAP) to simulate and analyze the future water scenario. Following model calibration and validation, projections for precipitation, minimum (Tmin) and maximum (Tmax) temperatures, water demand, and unmet water demand are made for the year 2100, incorporating various climate change scenarios. The findings indicate satisfactory model performance, calibration, and validation. Analysis reveals a projected 49.25% and 34.61% decrease in mean precipitation by 2100 under A2 and B2 emission scenarios, respectively. The mean Tmax and Tmin are anticipated to rise compared to the baseline period, with Tmax increasing by 4.2 °C (A2) and 3.6 °C (B2), and Tmin by 3.5 °C (A2) and 2.9 °C (B2) by 2100. Water demand and unmet water demand are expected to rise across all scenarios, intensifying pressure on water resources and exacerbating water scarcity. The study predicts that, influenced by climate change, future unmet water demand could reach 64 million cubic meters (MCM) by 2100. While the proposed adaptation strategies demonstrate effectiveness, they may not be sufficient to guarantee water sustainability for the Ourika watershed.
Keywords: Climate Change; Statistical Downscaling; WEAP; Water Resources; Adaptation Strategies
