Speaker
Description
The study investigates the dynamic and asymmetric effects of economic growth and energy consumption on environmental quality in Morocco over the period 1984–2022, drawing on the theoretical framework of the Load Capacity Curve (LCC). Environmental quality is proxied by the load capacity factor, a composite indicator that captures the pressure exerted by human activity on the ecological system. The analysis employs a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model to account for short- and long-run asymmetries in the response of environmental quality to changes in both renewable and non-renewable energy consumption, as well as economic growth. Institutional quality is included as a control variable to account for the broader governance environment within which these dynamics unfold.
Empirical results support the existence of a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. Positive shocks to renewable energy consumption are found to enhance environmental quality over the long term, while increases in non-renewable energy consumption exert a statistically significant negative impact. The relationship between economic growth and environmental quality is also nonlinear: below a per capita income threshold estimated at USD 17,883, growth deteriorates environmental conditions, whereas beyond this level, further growth contributes to ecological improvement, providing empirical support for the Load Capacity Curve hypothesis.
These findings underscore the importance of energy mix policy and the strategic orientation of economic growth toward sustainability goals. While institutional quality exerts an asymmetric effect on environmental quality, its role remains secondary in this framework. The study offers valuable policy insights for emerging economies seeking to reconcile development with ecological sustainability, particularly in the context of SDGs 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), 8 (Decent Work and Economic Growth), and 13 (Climate Action).
