Speaker
Description
Climate change poses a serious threat to the economies of Africa’s developing countries, which depend heavily on agriculture. According to IPCC projections, shifts in rainfall patterns and rising temperatures are expected to cause a significant decline in agricultural production across many regions. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on agricultural output, compares them with past drought episodes, and evaluates the extent to which the Plan Maroc Vert—Morocco’s agricultural development and investment strategy—supports agricultural adaptation to climate challenges.
Using mathematical models based on cereal cultivation area, production, population, and per capita consumption (kg/person) in 2014, our analysis shows that only four regions produced a cereal surplus relative to their local consumption. However, with population growth, a national cereal deficit is projected for 2024 and 2034, reducing the average annual per capita cereal availability from 204.75 kg in 2014 to 160.61 kg in 2034. To meet projected population needs, this would require a reduction of approximately 25 kg/person by 2034. Simulated climate scenarios indicate that cereal production will further decline under conditions of rising temperatures and decreasing precipitation, making it increasingly unlikely to satisfy the nutritional needs of Morocco’s growing population by 2034.
