Speaker
Description
In a context of global change, this study examines the combined influence of hydroclimatic (precipitation, temperature) and topographic (altitude, slope, exposure) variables on vegetation cover dynamics in the Akka Wabzaza SIBE (Central High Atlas, Morocco). The analysis is based on a 37-year time series (1985–2022) of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). The relationships between NDVI and explanatory variables were explored using Pearson correlations and a multiple linear regression model incorporating morphometric parameters. The results show a strong dependence of vegetation on hydroclimatic conditions. NDVI is positively correlated with precipitation, while thermal and water stress, marked by a thermal break after 1997, is accompanied by a gradual decline in the index. Topographic variables have a secondary but significant effect: negative correlations with altitude (r = −0.088) and exposure (r = −0.042), positive with slope (r = 0.086). The regression model confirms a moderate contribution of site factors (R² = 0.14), with slope being the most influential predictor. These results highlight the value of a multi-scalar approach that also integrates anthropogenic factors. Climate trends structure the overall dynamics of vegetation, while topography and anthropogenic pressure modulate local responses. This complementarity is essential for designing adaptation and sustainable management strategies in the face of environmental change.
